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Of the hundred women Powers has met on Tinder, several have given their speeches to him and invited him to come over and take them out on a date, and two have agreed to come.
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This paper presents a framework for harnessing online activity data to understand how people make decisions. Building on insights from decision theory and cognitive science, we develop a discrete choice model that enables exploratory behavior and stages of decision making, with various rules. Critically, the approach can identify when and if people invoke screeners that eliminate large swaths of alternatives from detailed consideration. The model is estimated using deidentified activity data on 1.1 million browsing and Backpage Close To Me Glen Valley BC writing decisions observed on an online dating website. A account of heterogeneity shows that, even after controlling for a host of visible attributes, partner evaluation differs across conclusion stages as well as across groupings of women and men. Our statistical frame can be widely applied in analyzing large-scale data on multistage choices, which typify searches for "big ticket" items.
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